Tag Archives: trading

General, Research, Software

Pre-Release Announcement

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Addaptron Software has been making steady progress with the development of the next generation of high quality software tools for investors/traders. Although there is still a lot of work ahead, Addaptron Software is getting ready to deliver a new software product, SMT-1 (Stock Market Tools, version 1.0). Its first (beta) release is scheduled for October-November 2018.

One of the achievements is all-in-one output forecast signal. This signal is combined from technical indicators, waves, and cycles data by Artificial Intelligence (AI) module. Also based on prediction accuracy, AI decides what time-frame signals to include. There are three types of output: (1) positive numbers for up trending symbols, (2) negative numbers for down trending ones, and (3) zero numbers for uncertain prediction (when AI is unable to provide a reliable prediction result).

In short, SMT-1 has the following benefits:

  • Its comprehensive AI forecast output is combined into a single list of ranked symbols. Such a simple concept enables most investors/traders to use the software easily.
  • Since AI is able to optimize many settings parameters, the number of user-defined parameters is minimized so that users can save time.
  • The software recommends entry/exit prices that allows users just to place a limit buy or limit sell order for the next market day.
  • The software has a back-test simulation functionality that allows users to try different trading strategies.
  • Except a calculated sell signal, the software has an ability to maximize trading profit by optimizing additional sell-trigger parameters.
  • The software includes an extra feature to analyze a current position, recommend the action, track buy-sell transactions, and measure trading performance.
A screenshot of SMT-1 alpha version, main interface
A screenshot of SMT-1 alpha version, main interface

The SMT-1 release will represent a leap forward in usability, functionality, performance and value for Addaptron Software product users. Visit our website addaptron.com at the end of 2018 to download a beta version of SMT-1 and take advantage of this huge upgrade and promotional deal.

General, Research

Prediction Combined with Simple Algorithm Provides Stable Return

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Any prediction can fail but if it is combined with well-tested buy-sell rules, the result is much better. Addaptron Software provides predictions of major ETFs prices (Open, High, Low, Close) for the next day. This article describes one of the simplest algorithms to use one-day candle prediction data. The algorithm consists of four simple rules:

  1. Place Buy Limit order with predicted Low price before the stock market is opened.
  2. As soon as the Buy Limit order is completed, place Sell Limit order with predicted High price.
  3. Cancel the order if it is not completed during the first half of the stock market day.
  4. If the stock market is about to close but the order is not completed, cancel the Sell Limit order and place Sell Market order.

The following charts and tables demonstrate one of the practical examples of described above approach (symbol BOIL).

Predicted and actual prices chart (dark green and red filled candles – predicted, light green and red line candles – actual):

The chart of predicted and actual prices

Predicted and actual prices table:

The table of predicted and actual prices

Intraday performance chart (actual prices) for the same period:

The intraday prices

The result of using the described algorithm:

The result of using the described algorithm

The example is based on the following assumptions: 300 shares are used for trading, transaction fee is $10 so that 2 transactions (buy and sell) within day cost $20. Another example (symbol SSO) can be find here

Software

Updated Version of TraDeSS-1 Has Been Released

Addaptron Software is pleased to announce the release of updated 2012.06.01 version of Trading Decision Support System TraDeSS-1. Now Simulation module allows optimizing algorithms and their parameters, as well as, performing comparative analysis for many symbols. At the end of batch mode simulation, it prints a summarized list of best buy-sell algorithms and parameters configuration for each symbol. The list is sorted from best to worst performers.

Updated Version of TraDeSS-1 Has Been ReleasedNow Relative Performance Forecast module allows printing output results in HTML-format that include additional information about prediction. It shows the forecast generated by each selected method, as well as, the weights of forecasts that were assigned in a composite forecast. If more than two methods are used, table includes RMSD (it is normalized root-mean-square deviation that is to estimate the degree of forecasts concurrence; the less amount means better consensus among different methods).

The new version is able to read input historical prices files of three different formats. The software recognizes these formats automatically. To enable reading any other format files, users should send the request.

Software

Advanced Software System for Professional and Institutional Traders

Advanced Software System for Professional and Institutional Traders

After years of intensive development Addaptron Software has released Trading Decision Support System TraDeSS-1, advanced computer program for institutional traders and investors. It is a comprehensive and effective software to help finding the best trading opportunities, maximizing profitability using several predictive models with back-testing features, and optimizing algorithms by running simulations.

TraDeSS-1 is equipped with an advanced forecasting state-of-the-art system. The predicting can be done using nine forecast methods of different nature. Only one method, a combination of a few ones, or all together can be used. Each method is provided with back-test calculation to estimate the accuracy of forecast within the recent performance period. The back-testing computations play an important role if more than one method is selected. It allows assigning a weight to each method in a composed result; the weights are proportional to the ability of the methods to predict the price.

The comparative analysis of simulations shows that systems based on predicted entry-exit signals generate a better profit in around 70% cases than random-entry trading systems. As well as, it should be noted that a multi-model forecast provides a significant improvement over the best individual forecast. It can be explained by the existence of many different independent factors contributing to the error in each forecast which is normally distributed around an actual value.

Since sometimes predictions can fail, to preserve a capital amount in a volatile market, the software enables simulating different risk management approaches. Depending on the character of particular trading shares and the current market conditions some ideas can work better than others. To optimize the strategy in a particular case, the software enables testing different algorithm configurations and finding automatically the best ones. It is especially important for exit points to minimize losses (and ultimately maximize an overall profit). All optimizations can be done automatically by scanning 64 possible logical combinations and adjusting numerical parameters.

TraDeSS-1 has a functionality that allows estimating a hypothetical maximum possible profit in case of 100% accurate forecast. Although an actual forecast cannot be so accurate, this feature combined with comparative analysis enables discovering the best trading opportunities among different types of financial instruments. Calculating maximum theoretical return allows finding optimal buy and sell signals. Also it helps estimating a reasonable amount of initial investment at given transaction fee. Users can choose to re-invest each time a new or the same amount and see the difference in results.

The software has forward testing and assets management features. It allows monitoring the simulated or actual completed transactions, reflecting total trading activity, and evaluating the success of trading in overall. It enables working with many separate data files that is convenient in case of managing multiple assets and keeping the archives of older activities.

TraDeSS-1 has also a few independent tools, such as, technical indicators predictor, cycle analysis forecast, Neural Network (NN) forecast, fundamental 3-month rating model, etc. The detailed description is presented in User’s Manual (accessible from menu Help after downloading and installing the software).