The stock market does not follow just a linear trend - it has some deviations from a linear function. Some cycles are well-known, such as, four-year presidential cycle or annual and quarterly fiscal reporting cycles. In addition, some cycles are defined by intrinsic characteristic properties of the system. The stock market performance curve can be considered as a sum of the cyclical functions with different periods and amplitudes. It is not easy to analyze the repetition of typical patterns in stock market performance because cycles mask themselves - sometimes they overlap to form an abnormal extremum or offset to form a flat period. It is clear that a simple chart analysis has a certain limit in identifying cycles parameters and using them for predicting.
Addaptron Software has developed Stock Market Analyzer-Predictor SMAP-2, computer program, which is able not only to extract basic cycles of the overall stock market or sectors but also to predict an optimal timing to buy or sell stocks. SMAP-2 calculation mainly based on extracting basic cyclical functions with different periods, amplitudes, and phases from historical quote curve. To detect correctly major cycles, the historical price data are transformed from time domain to frequency domain (spectrum).
By selecting data with different historical periods, user can identify the major cycles, which have a dominant effect in a particular time frame. To build an extrapolation (forecasted curve), SMAP-2 uses the following two-step approach: (1) applying spectral (time series) analysis to decompose the curve into basic functions, (2) composing these functions beyond the historical data. SMAP-2 also enables finding optimal timing to buy/sell by analyzing month of year, day of month, and day of week (the calculation is based on statistical analysis).
SMAP-2 has a user-friendly easy-to-use interface. To use this software it is recommended to have a basic knowledge in investing.
Some additional info is available on FAQ page, as well as, from menu Help after downloading and installing SMAP-2 demo version.
watch presentation about SMAP-2
check if you really need the software
try demo version
The algorithm to use SMAP-2 is simple - input data, process data, and view results. The input data are historical quotes of the stock market indexes selected by user for any period from one year to more than 40 years (automatically downloading). Downloaded CSV-files from the Internet are stored in INPUT subfolder and used for further processing
All calculations are done by clicking Processing > Performing Analysis. The calculations can take from a few minutes to an hour depending on the analyzing data period and performance of your PC.
Output results are spectrum of historical quote cycles, forecasted performance, and statistics of average prices (depending on month of year, day of month, and day of week).
watch presentation about SMAP-2
try demo version
