We would recommend the following three-step approach:

1. Get stock market investing education - how to invest in the stock market. The following books can be recommended for self-education:

Lessons from the Greatest Stock Traders of All Time by John Boik (good introduction to investing)

Stock Investing For Dummies by Paul Mladjenovic (very useful and important to read book)

The following three books by William J. O'Neil: How to Make Money in Stocks, 24 Essential Lessons for Investment Success, and The Successful Investor

How to Make $1,000,000 in the Stock Market Automatically! by Robert Lichello

2. At first, practice using our software without investing real money. In other words, simulate buying and selling.

3. Analyze your success. If your results are good and you feel confidence in stock market investing, it is time to try a real investing.

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The main purpose of Investment Analyzer InvAn-3/4 is to provide users with in-depth analysis to maximize the return on their investments. InvAn has been tested for many years with excellent results; however, it has its own limit as any other tool. According to Efficient Markets approach, news and other public information are incorporated into the price of a stock with a certain time delay (price is supposed to reach and keep a stable equilibrium that change only each time a relevant new information is known). Since InvAn does not formalize all informational universes, monitoring companies' news and macroeconomic trends are very important.

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Yes, using historical prices data analysis. Particularly, Stock Market Analyzer-Predictor SMAP-2/3 has been developed to study the behavior of major market indexes for a period from a few days to more than 40 years on the basis of spectrum analysis and statistics. It helps evaluate the future performance within 1/4 period of historical data.

Also Investment Analyzer InvAn-3/4 has a tool that allows predicting indexes using Fourier spectrum analysis for six-month period. Historical index change can be successfully decomposed by Fourier series. It is statistically confirmed that Fourier analysis gives relatively reliable and simple forecast result. Besides, general market influence is accounted in technical analysis rating of each stock by using up to four different market indexes. In addition, InvAn-4 has useful features to analyze market sectors.

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It is a standard in the software industry. In the same way - once you open the box with software, the package cannot be returned. We provide potential buyers with 60-day evaluation to help to make a right decision. We encourage people to study the product properly before buying. It is better not to waste time, money, and other resources for returning (that allows keeping affordable prices for the software). Since our software can be considered as a kind of investment with a good return for a user, there is no need to attract customers using return policy.

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Both Investment Analyzers are similar by functionalities. However, InvAn-3 does not include the processor for updating technical analysis indicators matrix and uses a basic one. InvAn-4 can perform additional sector analyses and forecast (each sector is composed of the stocks that included in the internal database). Also it performs sector analysis for invested stocks and enables to have different fundamental model parameters for different sectors. InvAn-4 users can choose one of two models for timing rating - "better price" or on the basis of Fourier analysis forecast. Also InvAn-4 has an automatic one-button processing. It allows performing data diagnostics and most updates and calculations by using a configured scenario and only one click. In general, InvAn-4 design has been indented for more advanced users.

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To buy all-option licensed software, you should install a demo version first and then request the unlocking key (automatic system). Click the menu item Help / License and follow the instruction. You will be asked to enter your name and email address, click button Request all-option key and make payment, and make payment. When we receive your order and payment, we will provide you with unlocking key (normally within two business days).

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Investment Analyzer InvAn-3/4 calculations are transparent for users. The intermediate calculation and the final result can be checked. For example, users can see why some companies have high fundamental rating or others have low by examining each fundamental rating component. Another example - Cup-With-Handle filter; it is easy to look at the chart and check how seven-conditional filter works. InvAn should be rather considered as a perfect tool in the same way as computer or calculator. Also there is a simple way for demo-users to make sure about prediction because demo-version includes forecasting data that slightly outdated. So that by comparing current prices (or in the future) with InvAn predicted expectations it is easy to define to what extent InvAn can be trusted. Besides, Addaptron Software developers successfully use InvAn for their investing.

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Yes. Also we encourage our users perform back testing on their own for unbiased result. InvAn demo includes predicted (some time ago) data so that it is easy to make a comparative analysis (how prediction is accurate and how it predicts comparing with other tools). Also using Plotting → Fourier spectrum analysis forecast → Potential portfolio and Other portfolio can help to see more picture.

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Out-of-sample testing is used in SMAP-2, NNSTP-2 (plus sample testing), and InvAn-3/4 (short-term forecast). Besides, out-of-sample testing is used in InvAn-3/4 to rank the list of indicators, i.e., defining their current ability in predicting prices and then assigning corresponding weights. More explanations presented in the User's Manuals.

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Neural Network Stock Trend Predictor NNSTP-2 uses NN for short-term stock price trend forecast. InvAn uses NN for technical analysis (three-month period) and short-term forecast. Our tools maximize using Neural Networks (NN) up to the limit what we can get from NN. But the problem of predicting stock prices is not in NN abilities. Even the best NN with a huge input of historical prices cannot predict all the time very well. NN is a perfect tool itself but it has limited abilities because of impossibility to formalize news and other factors that may become very dominant time-from-time.

Basically, the price of a stock depends mostly on overall market and economy, sector conditions, company performance, the evaluation of its stocks by the market, news, and many other factors. InvAn technical analysis can improve the accuracy of prediction. That is why a relative weight of technical analysis rating in InvAn composite rating is set to 37.5 / (62.5 + 37.5 + 25) = 30% by default (see Customize → General settings)

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Basically, yes. Though Investment Analyzers have been designed for stock investing, InvAn-3 has been successfully tested for ETF. Please use, for example, Yahoo! Finance to make sure if a mutual fund (or ETF) is publicly traded and its historical prices data are available. Another option is to use InvAn input feature "Convert INPUT/*.csv files into internal database" that allows working with own data from other source in a standard CSV-file format with header "Date,Open,High,Low,Close,Volume,Adj Close".

Please be aware, since a mutual fund or ETF normally does not have standard fundamental data, the result of Composite rating is incomplete. In this case, Fundamental rating should be ignored (the weight of Fundamental rating should be set to zero in "General settings") and only Technical and Timing ratings should be taken into consideration.

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If you meant the historical prices data, yes. Our tools work with a common-used CSV-files which format is defined by a standard header - "Date,Open,High,Low,Close,Volume,Adj Close". SMAP-2 and NNSTP-2 use directly these files. The files downloaded automatically from the Internet by the software. As an alternative, a user can copy manually own files of the same format from other sources into /(product name)/INPUT/. Also InvAn input feature "Convert INPUT/*.csv files into internal database" allows working with own data in the same CSV-file format from other sources.

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The safety and quality of our products are our major priorities. If you are downloading from our website, it should be no problem. We use a secure web hosting. Also our products are well tested (including several industry-leading security solutions); we fix any reported bugs fast. If you have any trouble with our software, please report us at support@addaptron.com or use our on-line form to send an instant message.

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No, you don't. Users update input data that are publicly available from the Internet for free anytime on their own. InvAn database consists of two parts - (1) fundamental DB and (2) historical prices files. Users should update data (1) following "Input → Company-Stock Database → Retrieving all data from Internet" around once a week or immediately when companies publish quarterly financial reports (or when some expert expectation is changed - for "External ratings" parameters). For more details, please refer to Manual. The second one (2) is the button "Update all stocks historical prices data" (Input) that need to be clicked after 7 pm PST (10 pm EST) to get the current day fresh quotes of stocks (the stocks included in your InvAn database and traded at US or global stock exchanges).

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Yes, you can keep your stocks updated daily by yourself without further charges.

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The trial version has a restriction for updating daily quotes and ratings calculations. These options become available after receiving unlocking key.

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Yes, it is. The fundamental data update is done automatically. After adding a new favorite stock in InvAn company-stock database, a user may use Input → Company-Stock Database → Retrieving all data from Internet . Also there are an option to download data by blocks with monitoring and an option to update all records in the database. The data are publicly available through the links suggested in the program and free of charge. If no fundamental data entered for a specific company, the fundamental rating of this company will be ignored in the composite rating result (see details in Manual).

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Investment Analyzer InvAn-3/4 enables a short-term forecast to define optimal entry and exit points on the basis of a selected technical indicator or many indicators by using automatic Neural Network. Investment Analyzers also have an additional tool to predict stock prices using pattern similarity within the range of one day to a few months.

Another tool, Neural Network Stock Trend Predictor NNSTP-2 has been developed to help stock traders in predicting stock prices for short terms. It predicts future share prices or their percentage changes (can be chosen in settings menu) using Fuzzy Neural Network (FNN). It operates automatically when creating the FNN, training it, and mapping to classify a new input vector.

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1. Go to Help → Manual. Read it through.

2. Run the software. Try all menu items that are available for demo-version (if something goes wrong, you can always re-install the software).

3. Try to understand how everything works. Explore all output results. If something is not clear - go to Manual.

4. As time goes by, watch the performance of the stocks that are high-ranked to make sure that InvAn prediction was correct.

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Basically, yes. The biggest component (by default settings) of InvAn Composite rating is Fundamental rating, which usually changes not so fast - with updating analysts' recommendation, ratios, external ratings, and quarterly income report. Also since InvAn Fundamental rating uses two-year period of the past company performance, it can be projected into the future. So that Fundamental rating may be used separately for a long-term forecast.

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InvAn has been designed to calculate the correlation coefficient between group of invested stocks (Invested portfolio) and other stocks in InvAn database. However, a user can also calculate the correlation between two stocks only. For this purpose, assign your base stock to Invested portfolio (there should be no other stocks in this group) and enter any shares number and book value (zeros will not be accepted). Your second stock should exist in the database and both historical prices stocks data should be downloaded from the Internet. Then run Processing → Correlation (correlation is calculated for the last 1.5 years).

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Yes, it does. It is important to update input data and recalculate results BEFORE making an investment decision. If input data are outdated or wrong, the output result will be wrong. Since InvAn does not formalize all informational universes, it is recommended to confirm an investment decision with the latest company's news, as well as, macroeconomic trends. User's Manual has a paragraph called Important Warnings that explains in detail how an investor can minimize losses in investing.

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Yes, if the same user prefers to have software installed on 2-3 different computers, we issue up to 3 unlocking keys anytime.

1. First install a trial version on your PC from Download page
2. Run new installed program, go to "License" from main menu and follow the instruction to order unlocking key (use the same name/email as you ordered the first key). Skip payment.
3. Send us email at support@addaptron.com confirming that you requested one more key.
4. When we receive your email and order, we will provide you with unlocking key (normally within two business days).

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Please do the same as you did on the desktop:

1. First install SMAP-2 trial version on your laptop from Download page
2. Run new installed SMAP-2, go to "License" from main menu and follow the instruction to order unlocking key (use the same name/email as you ordered the first key). Skip payment.
3. Send us email at support@addaptron.com confirming that you requested one more key.
4. When we receive your email and order, we will provide you with unlocking key (normally within two business days).

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After purchasing a user can re-download the same version and re-install the software on the same computer unlimited number of times (your once issued unlocking key will be valid always). If a user upgraded to a new computer, we allow transferring the license from one machine to another machine for the same user. If the same user prefers to have software installed on 2-3 different computers, we issue up to 3 unlocking keys anytime.

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We are constantly working on InvAn improvements. The existing customers provided with free updates a few times a year. Please regularly visit our web page News or subscribe for our free monthly email newsletters.

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In the latest version of InvAn, IBD rating (as well as, TheStreet rating) is optional and its weight is set to 0% by default. If the weight of any fundamental model parameter in settings equals 0%, this parameter will be ignored for all stocks in the overall fundamental rating, i.e., using 0% allows turning off some factor. In this case, InvAn will neither decrease nor increase the overall fundamental rating - it is just not taken into calculation.

If you change the weight of this model parameter in settings from 0% to, for example, 25% - it may increase (if it is a correct one) accuracy of the overall fundamental rating in about 4.5% (= 25/550, where 550% - approximate total weights of all model parameters), and in the composite rating in about 2.3% (=4.5%*62.5/125, where 62.5% - fundamental rating weight, 125% all weights in the composite rating). As you can see it is not a significant factor.

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It seems you are using "better price" option of Timing analysis rating. Even so, the small values of Timing rating should not decrease significantly the composite rating of good stocks because by default setting the weight of timing rating is the smallest in the composite rating. Using "better price" model can be controversial for the investors who follow a trading strategy "trend is your friend". It is better to use Fourier spectrum forecast option for the users, who are not in favor of an undervalued-overvalued approach. To change the option, go to Customize → General settings → Timing analysis rating option

Besides, you can set the weight of timing rating to 0%. However, IA timing rating is used to define an optimal entry and exit points; and it can help to benefit from a fluctuating stock price. For example, two stocks may have equal composite ratings but one can be temporary overvalued by market (that can lead to its soon correction), and at the same time, another one can be undervalued. In some cases, the contribution of timing rating in composite rating should be significantly decreased or avoided at all. For example, there is no reason to wait for better price of a high-ranked stock after its good news, since most likely the price will go up; it would be better to buy immediately if fundamental and technical ratings both are good enough. More info about IA timing rating can be found in the User's Manual.

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In case of worldwide (non-US) stock exchanges, an extension needs to be added to the stock symbol (normally, the quote data expressed in local currency). You can visit Yahoo's finance pages to lookup the symbol. As example, for India, use http://in.finance.yahoo.com and extension .NS (.BO); for instance, SATYAMCOM.NS . Below is a list of such extensions for some global stock exchanges:

Australia Buenos Aires Caracas Copenhagen Frankfurt India London Madrid Mexico Milan Montreal New Zealand Oslo Paris San Pablo Santiago Singapore Stockholm Toronto Vancouver

.AX .BA .CR .CO .F .NS (.BO) .L .MC .MX .MI .M .NZ .OL .PA .SA .SN .SI .ST .TO .V

Starting from version 2010.02 InvAn-3/4 has an option to download historical prices from Google server (a default setting is Yahoo). Be aware that Google uses symbol names for some stocks that may differ from Yahoo designation (check at Google Finance).

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Yes, it supports whatever symbol of index you can find on Yahoo's finance pages. For example, Canada S&P/TSX Composite index is ^GSPTSE, Australia All Ordinaries - ^AORD, China Shanghai Composite - ^SSEC, India Bombay - ^BSESN, Japan Nikkei - ^N225, New Zealand NZSE 40 - ^NZ40, Austria ATX - ^ATX, France CAC 40 - ^FCHI, Germany DAX - ^GDAXI, United Kingdom FTSE 100 - ^FTSE, etc.

However, it is important to check if historical data exist. Sometimes, some indexes may have only five-day data. Before downloading any CSV-file, it is important to visit Yahoo! Finance, check your symbol existence, and make sure it has the period you requested. If you try to download some symbol and receive an error message, please DO NOT TRY TO DOWNLOAD AGAIN. Otherwise your software may be black-listed (web security can block the access if you repeatedly ignore the error message).

If you would like to analyze the index which does not have a sufficient historical period, you may try to use its equivalent. For example, Yahoo! Finance limits data to five-day period for ^FTSE so that you could use ISF.L instead. The same applies to currency exchange rate (for instance, instead of EURUSD use FXE).

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Number one is InvAn-4 for your purpose. Also recently it was enhanced by two options that help to find optimal entry/exit points.

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Before downloading any CSV-file it is important to visit Yahoo! Finance, check your symbol existence, and make sure it has at least two years of data. If you try to download some symbol historical prices data and receive an error message, please DO NOT TRY TO DOWNLOAD AGAIN. Otherwise your software may be black-listed (web security can block the access if you repeatedly ignore the error message). If it already happened, contact support@addaptron.com

Starting from version 2010.02 InvAn-3/4 has an option to download historical prices from Google server (a default setting is Yahoo). Be aware that Google uses symbol names for some stocks that may differ from Yahoo designation (check at Google Finance).

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Stock Market Analyzer-Predictor SMAP-2/3 is very good for cycle analysis. Predicted time horizon can be from a few days to several years. Also it has a unique statistical analyzer - annual, monthly, and weekly cycles. It is a useful tool for any investor or trader. Indexes and their equivalents have stochastic nature more than individual stocks. So that SMAP-2/3 is suited for your purpose.

SMAP-2/3 does not take into account the volumes of traded shares as inputs. During the periods when the stock market driven by news, cycles may have some irregularity. Neural Network Stock Trend Predictor NNSTP-2 uses also volume data as inputs and it is good for traders for predicting from one day to around 60 days.

First download SMAP-2 and try its demo. If you like it, you could buy and start using. Then to increase accuracy of your decision-making, you could consider NNSTP-2 as your additional tool.

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SMAP-2 uses optimized parameters and automatically re-adjust some of them depending on a situation. The only thing that can change forecast even in an opposite direction - is a chosen time frame (historical period for input). Users should use a common sense to choose a good one or better analyze a few ones. It is important to use back testing curve deviation from actual curve to estimate the accuracy for a selected historical period. The current version of SMAP-2 combines result (with different weights depending on back-testing success) from two methods. One of them decomposes a curve into trend and periodic components. More details about used models presented in the Manual (Help menu). Also you can find here SMAP-2 testing result for artificial data.

Forecast built on statistical methods may fail because of redistribution of driving factors - news, investors' sentiments, regulatory impact, etc. You could play with time frame and find the one which gives a very good back-testing; however, the forecast may still fail. That is why it is important do not put too much trust in any method alone. There is an Expert Method. As its illustration, an experimentalist shows a pen and asks about 40 people to write down their estimate of the length. Then he collects notes and calculates the average number - normally it is almost 100% accurate. Why it works? Everyone makes error in different directions so that averaging gives a precise result. In the same way - it is wise to get forecasts using different methods (tools) and make your own conclusion.

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InvAn-4 includes many things; it is all-in-one and can be used without two other tools. However, evidently, it is almost impossible to create the best one universal thing (in the same way as a universal glue cannot be better than a special glue for metal and a special one for leather material). There are many differences between the same features that used in all tools. Please read their user's manuals. A wise solution is to use all three tools and all the calculations for investing analysis. The more tools are used, the better result (different tools may make errors in different directions so that averaging gives more accurate result). Besides, all tools have back-testing feature that allows users to decide which method (tool) is the most appropriate at current market conditions.

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The Bartels Test is used to measure the stability of the amplitude and phase of each cycle. It is a good approach to study a stable system with a certain set of cycles. The stability of cycles can be important. However, please be aware, the stock market is more like as a evolving semi-cyclic system.

A few latest versions of SMAP-2 fit curve by assigning higher weights for the most recent historical period that allow increasing sensitivity to the freshest stable cycles. SMAP-2 starts fitting process by searching for the most stable cycles (constant amplitude, period, and phase) with the biggest amplitude. So that one can analyze the cycles significance by their position on the list (use Output → Select Output File → View TXT-file). Upgraded SMAP-3 displays the deviation between each solution (extracted cycle) and actual curve. The deviation is in inverse proportion to statistical stability.

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You could try to narrow the input data period to make "Training cases number " around 100. By doing that, you increase the importance of more recent historical data. Also if cases number is more than a few hundreds, the forecast can be too noisy (please see the recommendation in Users Manual).

Please note, statistical predictions work the best for technically conditioned retraces. Since a big move and reversal happen in the stock market mostly because of fundamental reason or news, it is hard to predict such events using statistical methods. The testing of NNSTP-2 has showed - the stock market moves that were induced by news were not always synchronized with technical pre-disposition. So that it is important not to rely only on statistical forecast results, do not put too much trust in any method alone, and make your own conclusion.

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It is normal that a single cycle cannot fit perfectly. Most historical price curves consist of many overlapping cycles. So that total deviation between actual curve and composed solution (consists of many cycles) must be less than only one fitted cycle deviation.

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A regular (automated) forecast is created by using three methods and one adjustment. In advanced mode, only a simple cycle analysis is used. However, it has more flexibility. As example, it enables working with arbitrary period cycles (some users believe in particular cycles).

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Both software tools use Fuzzy NN. NNSTP-2 is more flexible. Forecast horizon is from one to 60 days or more (1-60 is tested period). However, it uses only price-volume data as input; although training data are scanned and optimized within a range of time-frames.

InvAn predicts within fixed 10-day horizon and uses fixed historical period - around 1.5 year. The major difference is input data - NNSTP-2 uses the set of technical indicators' signals.

It is hard to say, which better or more reliable. Depending on market conditions, one can be better than another and vice versa. For trading (short periods), NNSTP-2 may be better. InvAn is more universal tool. Some NNSTP-2 results can be found in SP-500 weekly forecat blog.

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A regular (automated) forecast is created by using three methods composed with auto-weight and one adjustment. In advanced mode, only a simple cycle analysis is used but it has more flexibility (and more "human factor"). That is why these two forecasts may differ even for the same time frame. Advanced option can be useful for the users who believe in particular cycles and prefer to set own periods, for example, two-week cycle (period 10 trading days).

Help section Advanced in User's Manual has some explanation (if you have outdated version, please update your SMAP-3).

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The reason can be different - an interrupting or slow Internet connection, unstable availability of source, or the absence of requested data (for example, some company may go out of business and its data may be deleted from databases), etc. Addaptron Software uses up-to-date Microsoft .Net Framework library that is optimized to process such kind of errors. However, in some critical situations, for example, after several attempts to retrieve the data with no success, the following error message can appear in pop-up window:


Solution:

1. Click "Continue" and then "Save".
2. Since it stops on a particular symbol (company), visit Yahoo! Finance or Google to make sure that the company data still exist. If data are not available anymore, consider deleting the symbol record.
3. If company data are available, try to download data again starting from the number where it stopped using button "From - To" at the bottom of the form (in our example above, go to two boxes besides the button "From - To" and enter in boxes 379 and 525).
4. If company data are unavailable, try to download data again starting from the number after where it stopped using button "From - To" at the bottom of the form (in our example above, go to two boxes besides the button "From - To" and enter in boxes 380 and 525). Later you may consider deleting the symbol record.
5. If two above steps were unsuccessful, check the Internet connection or try to download later.

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