Archive

Posts Tagged ‘reversal’

Candlestick Patterns Decoded by Neural Network

February 2nd, 2012 6 comments

Candlestick patterns can signal a trend continuation or reversal. Many traders and investors know how to benefit from candlesticks analysis. As a rule, a simple chart analysis is used that requires analysts to remember and correctly interpret, at least, typical candlestick patterns. However, the number of possible different candlestick shapes and their combinations in a row can be huge. Besides, some patterns interpretations might be considered as contradictory or doubtful.

Fortunately, statistical methods combined with computer power can be a good solution to make the candlestick patterns recognition works less time-consuming and more effective. These days, Neural Network (NN) can help to automate a candlestick patterns recognition task. NN should be properly trained in order to be able to predict the next candlestick parameters with the highest probability. One of the obvious problems of implementing a candlestick pattern NN predicting system is a formalization of inputs.

Numerous tests show many possibilities of improving NN candlestick patterns recognition systems. For example, output result can be composed from selected optimized calculations based on different historical periods. Also there are many different ways to formalize the shapes and relative positions of candlesticks. As well as, as back- and forward-testing show, it is reasonable to re-train NN for each particular type of shares and latest historical periods to make the forecast more accurate.

Optimal Solution. There is an automated tool FTA-2 (free use of fully-functional version for one month). It has module which enables using Neural Network to recognize typical candlestick patterns and predict future prices (open, high, low, close). This module predicts only one next candlestick but the prediction can be successfully used for different widths of candlestick, i.e., the number of trading days in one candlestick. The module has been enhanced to calculate result that is composed from different historical periods that allows making the forecast more accurate. Also it can perform comparative forecast analysis for many symbols.

Candlestick Patterns Decoded by Neural Network

Useful resources:

  • Candlestick basics – major signals
  • Neural Network basics – introduction
  • The computer program which enables using Neural Network to recognize typical candles patterns and predict future prices – software FTA-2

S&P-500 Forecast for February 22-26, 2010

February 20th, 2010 Comments off

S&P-500 Forecast for February 22-26, 2010

Charts represent S&P-500 forecast for February 22-26, 2010. The calculations have been performed using Neural Network Stock Trend Predictor NNSTP-2 and Stock Market Predictor SMAP-3 (cycle analysis). A summarized prediction could be a moderate uptrend (1-2%) with flat or downtrend ending. Back-testing fails can be explained by increasing news factor or a possible reversal driven by fundamental changes.