Addaptron Software is pleased to announce the release of a new 2013.05 version of Stock Market Forecast Tools SMFT-1. It is an integrated system that includes three major programs: the most popular software program SMAP-3 for stock market cycles analysis and forecast, NNSTP – Neural Network Stock Trend Predictor, and FTA-2 – a modified version of InvAn-4 that is a comprehensive tool used by serious investors for years. The new version includes several improvements, such as, models optimization, ability to read more different input file formats, and optional feature to enable a free Downloader.
SMFT-1 consists of the tools that employ fundamental ratios rating model, technical analysis, chart pattern analysis, Elliott Wave theory, cycle analysis, candlesticks model, trend lines analysis, regression models, etc. The calculations are empowered by Neural Network. The implemented methods are statistically proven and widely used.
Most methods are provided with back-test calculation to estimate the accuracy of forecast within the recent performance period. The back-testing computations also may play an important role if more than one method is used. It allows estimating a weight of each method in a composed result; the weights that are proportional to the ability of the methods to predict the price.
Categories: General, Software candlestick, chart pattern analysis, cycle analysis, Elliott Wave, forecast, fundamental ratios, model, neural network, predict, rating, technical analysis
Addaptron Software is pleased to announce the release of updated 2012.06.01 version of Trading Decision Support System TraDeSS-1. Now Simulation module allows optimizing algorithms and their parameters, as well as, performing comparative analysis for many symbols. At the end of batch mode simulation, it prints a summarized list of best buy-sell algorithms and parameters configuration for each symbol. The list is sorted from best to worst performers.
Now Relative Performance Forecast module allows printing output results in HTML-format that include additional information about prediction. It shows the forecast generated by each selected method, as well as, the weights of forecasts that were assigned in a composite forecast. If more than two methods are used, table includes RMSD (it is normalized root-mean-square deviation that is to estimate the degree of forecasts concurrence; the less amount means better consensus among different methods).
The new version is able to read input historical prices files of three different formats. The software recognizes these formats automatically. To enable reading any other format files, users should send the request.
Parabolic SAR (SAR stands for Stop-And-Reverse) is a trend-following indicator that has been used by many traders for decades. Its major application is in trading systems to define a trailing stop, i.e., to protect profit when a price trend changes. The term “parabolic” appeared to characterize the indicator parabola shape that is due to using an accelerating factor in the formula. SAR is especially effective in a trending market. To make it more effective in a sideways market, it is often used in conjunction with other indicators.
SAR indicator gives a strong signal when a price trend is about to reverse, therefore, this indicator can be used for prediction. To compare the predictive ability of SAR with other indicators, it has been implemented into the technical analysis module of Fundamental-Technical Analyzer FTA-2. SAR calculations have been used to collect statistics based on the forecast simulations for major indexes and ETFs during August-October 2011 period. As a result, SAR’s position was mostly in “top ten” indicators list.
The research and presented chart are made by Fundamental-Technical Analyzer FTA-2, one of the software modules that enables composing Neural Network forecasts of many indicators with weights accordingly to each indicator’s predictive ability.
Omitting logical rules for accelerating factor and reversal conditions, a recurring core formula for SAR is the following:
SAR (current point) = AF * [EP – SAR (previous point)] + SAR (previous point)
AF – Acceleration Factor (normally starts from 0.02 and increases by 0.02 if each next point reaches a new extreme, saturates until 0.2);
EP – Extreme Point (lowest low or highest high).
To summarize, Parabolic SAR can be enriched by combining it with Neural Network and successfully used for predicting stock market prices. Combing it with Neural Network allows extracting more statistically stable patterns and, therefore, providing a better accuracy in the forecast. As simulations showed, improved results can be achieved if SAR is transformed into more sensitive indicator by subtracting it from close price (it indicates the degree of SAR and price convergence).
The charts below show potential behavior of S&P-500 Index, ^GSPC, for the next week, March 28 – April 1, 2011. The first chart is pattern similarity forecast, the second one – neural network forecast. Both methods predict an uptrend after Monday.
The chart shows S&P-500 forecast for the period from November 1 to November 5, 2010. The calculation has been performed using Neural Network Stock Trend Predictor NNSTP-2. The forecast is a fluctuation with eventual downside move.
The charts below show S&P-500 forecast for the period from October 18 to October 22, 2010. The forecast is a possible slight uptrend.
The forecasts have been calculated using Neural Network Stock Trend Predictor NNSTP-2 and Investment Analyzer InvAn-4 (pattern similarity).
The chart shows S&P-500 forecast for the period from September 13 to September 17, 2010. The calculation has been performed using Neural Network Stock Trend Predictor NNSTP-2. The forecast is a slight uptrend.
The chart shows S&P-500 forecast for the period starting from August 30. The calculation has been performed using Stock Market Predictor SMAP-3 (cycle analysis). The forecast is a possible uptrend until September 3, then downtrend.
Chart represents S&P-500 forecast for August 23-27, 2010. The prediction has been performed using Investment Analyzer InvAn-4 (pattern similarity). The forecast is a possible slight uptrend.
Chart represents S&P-500 forecast for August 16-20, 2010. The prediction has been performed using Investment Analyzer InvAn-4 (pattern similarity). The forecast is almost flat.