^GSPC forecast for May-July 2009

^GSPC forecast for May-July using Neural Network

^GSPC forecast for May-July using Neural Network

This is an approximate ^GSPC forecast for May-July (using Neural Network from experimental tool NNSTP-2).

Major points in numbers:

  • May 4-8: up to almost 900 (evidently if bad news affects investors’ mood, it can go down instead)
  • May 25-29: down to 870..800
  • June 22-26: up to around 930
  • July: massive selloff

Reminder: Forecast built on statistical methods may fail because of redistribution of driving factors – news, investors’ sentiments, regulatory impact, etc.

Important to notice: The recent forecast by pattern similarity shows earlier selloff.

2 Comments

  1. admin

    It goes slowly with some fluctuations above 900 and then slowly down. The pattern recognition indicates a different story (see previous post) – this week up very fast and then a big drop down. It is hard to say which scenario will realize (I think almost 50:50 chance). But at least both stochastic methods predict some uptrend for this week.

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